How Bad Is It?

Well, what's your take on things? I was busy this weekend with a friend from LA (Jay Holloway, accountant) and a wedding (Patrick and Joan Flynn's son. Flynn is former art director at The Progressive). So needless to say, I have been out of the loop.

My sense is, Israel blew a big chance, and the U.S. had to pick up the pieces with a deal in the UN that has as much chance of going anywhere as I do of winning the lottery. I see Iran and Hezbollah are crowing, but that would happen no matter what. So what is the meaning of it all?

I am going to read Podhoretz tonight --"Is the Bush Doctrine Dead? Epitaphs are multiplying for the President's revolutionary foreign policy; they are premature."-- because it's one of these moments when only the long-run perspective can cheer me up.

--Jon

Overall, it is as good a deal as Israel, and the US, could get, given that the IDF found its adversary to be a lot tougher sledding than it thought it was going to be. (I really don't know what effect "world opinion" regarding the slaying on so-called "innocents" had on Olmert, but the general take on that question is not encouraging. Anyway, the cease fire gives Israel a breather, which is more important than its also giving Hizbollah a chance to "re-arm," which it doesn't really need to do. And, either side can start it up again whenever it thinks the time is right, which I think means sooner rather than later, or I guess I should say I hope means sooner rather than later, because time is on the enemy's side. So far, it has come out about the way I predicted.

On July 23, 2006, David Burack wrote:
"Israel will keep pounding if not pulverizing all of Hezbollah's known missile emplacements until they are reduced to a safe level. [Well, that last phrase didn't prove out, apparently.] At the same time, they will not discourage a third party intervention, such as a NATO-manned buffer force on the border (which side or sides remains unclear), some few weeks down the line. Also, Iran is definitely behind the whole missile program, with Syria as its intermediary and Hezbollah as the operator. Finally, and perhaps one main motivator for the attack now -- not two Israeli soldiers casualties of war for gosh sakes -- Hezbollah, it is rumored, has intermediate range missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv and Jerusalem carrying very heavy warheads."

My hope is that they took out those intermediate range missiles, and no one wants to talk about that.

The elephant in the living room is, Iran's nukes and when our government will make good on our promise to prevent them from happening. I am praying that W's atonement and legacy act will be to do what has to be done. Everything else, even Iraq, is a sideshow. Even without that scenario, the whole thing is pretty scary, but it would be a lot less scary if the mass media could somehow be taught to take a sensible line. Not much hope on that score, either.

Meanwhile, during this breather, you can study or reference the particulars of the ceasefire (UN Security Council Resolution 1701) here.

And, as if to prove the point that this truce indeed is just a breather for Israel, check out this item from The Jerusalem Post, especially:

"Annan upset officials further when he said that deploying international forces in Lebanon would take "weeks or months," and not days as expected. [Ahem. I never expected "days." --Dave] Israeli officials said the IDF would not complete its withdrawal from southern Lebanon until the international force was deployed - even if it took months - to prevent a vacuum in Lebanon that could endanger Israeli civilians."

--Dave

Well, they set out to "crush" Hezbollah, right? Perhaps they did seriously diminish its terror-making capabilities...but Hezbollah has definitely survived to fight another day (which, as you say Jon, is a
certainty).

Israelis have to be asking themselves...what was the fighting over the last month all about?

What am I missing?

--Paul S.


I don't think you are missing anything. But I also think it is important, as I said, to keep the perspective long run. Here is Powerline with Netanyahu, who I have always felt should be prime minister of Israel.

Powerline, "Half Hour with Benjamin Netanyahu"

--Jon